Russia is capable of change. But is Putin?

This year Queen Elizabeth II marks 70 years as monarch. But those spectacular coronation celebrations of 1953 were against a backdrop of the Cold War that was already in full swing. Given the planet-obliterating capabilities the world has amassed since then, it’s a remarkable achievement that we’re all still here. But 30 years after the Cold War ended, we are now on the brink on full-scale war between Russia and NATO.

That doesn’t make sense for a couple of reasons. Firstly, it threatens one of the most peaceful and economically prosperous periods in human history. And secondly, now more than ever all nations have a couple of common causes for collaboration: neither the Climate Crisis nor Covid can be solved unilaterally.

And within Russia, despite it being the world’s biggest exporter of gas, and ranking second only to Saudi Arabia in oil exports, its GDP per capita is lower than that of Romania, and one sixth that of the United States.

So Putin has great external and internal reasons to adapt his isolationalist authoritarian approach. But he hasn’t. Prior to the annexation of Crimea, living standards in Russia rose on the back of healthy oil and gas prices. But despite the fact that sanctions have since stalled economic growth, he’s now back at his western border for a repeat performance.

The problem is, Putin has enough power, money and political support to carry on behaving as he always has. In fact he’s on course to break Stalin’s 30-year record in charge. And if your primary objective of being in power is to stay in power, why change a winning formula? Well, here’s why:

One vital practical element of survival and growth is to pivot while you still can. Invest in R&D before the cash cow runs out. Look ahead to see the end of the highway before you pass the last off-ramp. And don’t for a moment believe that ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’. Because it may already be broken but you just won’t find out until the cash cow keels over and the last exit fades in the rear view mirror.

Putin is an isolationist dictator in a world whose problems can only be solved by international collaboration. Covid-2X will invade Russia like any other country. No amount of military force will prevent rising temperatures from causing the destruction of a nuclear bomb in his country. And his obsession with using Ukraine as a buffer to keep NATO away from his borders will only result in his country suffering the increased effects of NATO sanctions within his borders.

Does Putin’s inability to adapt to the change challenges we all face today mean that his leadership style is already broken and he just doesn’t know it yet? Is he a dictator who has just dictated one-step too far? Well, based on today’s news of Russian troops moving into Donetsk and Luhansk, we’re about to find out.

Rich Alderton from High Performance Change is an Adaptability Intelligence specialist, so if either you our your organisation needs to be more adaptable, why not contact Rich for an initial discussion?